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A mysterious inscription, a famous name and a colossal price tag. Fiona Bruce and Philip Mould embark on a high-stakes quest to authenticate a 'lost' painting believed to be the work of Sir Winston Churchill. With a worrying lack of provenance, can scientific breakthroughs and historical detective work prove its worth – or is it just a clever forgery?

The painting in question is a charming depiction of a summer garden, purchased for a mere £140 at Ardingly Antiques Fair. Its owner, Barry – a carer and passionate art collector with an eye for potential treasures – believes it to be an authentic piece by Churchill.

Shortly after buying the painting, Barry discovered writing on the back that had been hidden by the frame: it states that the picture was painted in June 1916 by the Rt Hon Winston Churchill in the garden of Herstmonceux Castle. But is there any evidence to prove that he was there at the time?

If this is a genuine painting by Churchill, then it could be worth upwards of half a million pounds. However, with very little provenance and no official body currently authenticating Churchill’s art, Philip and Fiona have their work cut out. They will need to gather irrefutable new evidence to stand any hope of proving that Barry’s painting is genuine.

Philip opens the investigation by comparing Barry’s picture to a genuine, early Churchill on display at Blenheim Palace – are there any stylistic similarities? He also examines Barry’s picture forensically, taking it to Professor Aviva Burnstock at the Courtauld Institute in London for testing. Philip then meets Barry at Ardingly Antiques Fair in West Sussex, where it was bought. Can they identify the seller and trace its provenance back any further?

Meanwhile, Fiona delves into the history of the artist, Sir Winston Churchill. His life was painstakingly well documented – can she prove he was in the right place at the right time to have been able to paint it?

Fiona travels to Herstmonceux Castle to try to find the exact spot it depicts, with the help of a gardener. And when the historical archives run dry, she explores less traditional avenues of provenance – from handwriting to horticulture – to build a case that Barry’s painting is a genuine work by one of the most significant figures of the 20th century.