Jab fears explained: a base rate fallacy
Why increasing numbers of Covid infections among the vaccinated can be explained by a statistical phenomenon.
As some countries rapidly roll out vaccination programmes, there have been concerns that increases in infection rates amongst vaccinated groups mean vaccines are less effective than we hoped, especially in the face of the feared Delta variant.
Epidemiologist Dr Katelyn Jetelina from the University of Texas Health Science Centre School of Public Health explains why this isn’t what the numbers show – rather than decreasing vaccine effectiveness, increasing rates can be explained by a statistical phenomenon known as ‘base rate fallacy’.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Producer: Nathan Gower
Podcast
-
![]()
More or Less: Behind the Stats
Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics around us.
