蜜芽传媒

鈥淪ometimes the best map will not guide you. You can鈥檛 see what鈥檚 round the bend. Sometimes the road leads through dark places. Sometimes the darkness is your friend.鈥�

Those are the words of the Canadian musician Bruce Cockburn from a song called 鈥楶acing the Cage鈥�. But, as only the poets can do, he shines a light onto a fact of life which easily gets lost amid the uncertainty inherent in life. We human beings make our decisions and commitments on the basis of certain assumptions about the future 鈥� which might well prove to be unfounded. And this works at every level of our experience.

Yesterday the Defence Review was published, based on assumptions and calculations about how other actors in global politics might behave in the future. In 2021 a UK Strategic Review told us that we were tilting towards the Indo-Pacific. In 2023, following the invasion of Ukraine, this had itself to be reviewed, and Europe began to feature again. Who knows what might happen next in Russia or China which might shed a different light on our submarine needs, for example?

The challenge here is that long-term decisions have to be made on the basis of calculation in contexts of uncertainty. Stuff happens and everything changes. I think it鈥檚 easy to stand on the sidelines and criticise leaders for not having had the foresight to have decided with pre-emptive hindsight.

But, it impacts at the personal level, too. In the last nine months I have had a brain tumour 鈥� benign but growing 鈥� dealt with by gamma knife surgery. Then more recently minor heart surgery after a problem emerged. The upside is that I now have documentary evidence that I actually have both a brain and a heart. Mortality is a given.

I come from a tradition that takes seriously not only what decisions are the right ones, but also how 鈥� on the basis of which assumptions 鈥� decisions are made. The Bible makes it clear that justice matters, that people matter, that power corrupts, that governing is hard, that mortality limits. It also encourages a humility towards statements of certainty where certainty does not exist.

鈥淲ithout a vision the people perish鈥�, writes the sage; but, contrary to a popular musical, not 鈥渁ny dream will do鈥�. Some dreams are simply fantasies of power and security, rooted in fear. A vision of justice for my neighbour, of love for my enemy, is more challenging. After all, my security is not isolated from the security of my neighbour or my enemy.

Uncertainty has to be navigated because it is the only certainty we have. Sometimes, indeed, the best maps are limited.

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