蜜芽传媒

Some people are good with words, some are good with numbers. If you want to tie me in knots, then pile on the statistics and watch me flounder as I try to make sense of them. Everyone knows Mark Twain鈥檚 entertaining observation that 鈥渢here are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics鈥�, but he also knew that facts are facts and numbers shouldn鈥檛 be messed with.

Well, it鈥檚 certainly an interesting world in which someone can get sacked for having provided inconvenient numbers. Erika McEntarfer was head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the United States until last week when a report showed that far fewer jobs had been created than had been projected. President Trump claimed that the results were 鈥� block capitals alert - 鈥淩IGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad鈥�.

I guess we鈥檝e now got used to opinion trumping facts in a post-truth world. But, what this episode shows is that fear of reality is a dangerous thing. To reject data on the basis of political preference or personal convenience is surely worrying. The President might interpret the numbers in a particular way, but the data cannot simply be dismissed or discredited. Of course - while statistics can tell us something, they can never tell us everything. Similarly, recent claims 鈥� based on an opinion poll 鈥� that there is a 鈥渜uiet revival鈥� in the church in England require statistical analysis and don鈥檛 necessarily tell an obvious story. We鈥檒l see.

Two things strike me. The first has to do with reality and my ability to face it. If I only accept data that reinforces what I want to see, then I am deluded. In the eighth century BC there was a religious revival going on; but the prophets warned that this phenomenon could not simply be read as evidence God was on their side 鈥� especially whilst, against God鈥檚 character, the religious leaders of the day institutionalised injustice. It would not end well for the fantasists.

The second has to do with truth itself. Surely something is true because it is true; it can鈥檛 be made true because it is convenient to me or someone else 鈥� especially if it represents a play for power. CS Lewis reportedly said: 鈥淚f Christianity is true, it is true because it is true; it is not true because it is Christianity.鈥�

Truth is not always easy to discern 鈥�. But, a deliberate rejection of inconvenient facts (or data) leads us down a decidedly dodgy path of illusion.

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